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There are key external drivers whose future state is key to
the business’s success.
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Broad thinking and discussion about the future state is required
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Shared mental model of possible futures and expected future
is desired. Strategy cannot
be analyzed and executed based on individual opinion about what
the future holds.
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Maximizing strategic flexibility is important. Testing strategies
and developing alternate
courses of action is important.
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Elements that are primarily external to the company and outside
its ability to control have
a major impact on the success or failure of a company’s
strategy.
The purpose of a strategy is to provide a good fit between the
characteristics of the group or organization for which it is
designed and the business, political or social environment.
Whereas scenarios deal with uncertainties over which a company
has little control, strategies deal with decisions a company
can take action on.
Strategies, business ideas, options and alternatives encapsulate
the way an organization intends to walk into the future. The
question is - “Is it robust enough to deal with most of
the futures we can envisage?” This is where it needs to
be tested with the scenarios.
One method of evaluation, is called a “wind tunnel”,
uses a scenario/strategy matrix to assess all strategies across
all scenarios. Examination of the various outcomes for each
strategy gives an impression of the level of risk involved for
each. A strategy might be robust (performs well under all scenarios),
provide multiple coverage (pursue multiple strategies until
the future is more clear), a gamble (sub-optimal results under
some scenarios, but consciously gambling that those good results
will occur).
Regardless, there are leading indicators or signposts to be
monitored on an ongoing basis – the events to watch for
that will indicate which future (or combination of futures)
is actually unfolding.
Many scenario approaches only consider alternate futures that
are static. However, CCSI has a strong dynamics focus and uses
Systems Dynamics or Game Theory in its process. For many business
decisions it is critical to design strategies that secure survival
or prosperity in the face of boom/bust scenarios. To ensure
internal consistency in assumptions, CCSI uses systems models,
ranging from visual maps (e.g. causal loop diagrams) to sophisticated
management flight simulators. Especially the use of management
flight simulators can create powerful learning experiences since
they are engaging and provide rapid feedback to participants.
To ensure that the insights are acted on rather than becoming
“yet another binder”, extensive facilitation and
planning tools and techniques have been developed to make the
scenario formulation process interactive and to simplify the
complexity. Participants in the working sessions will be exposed
to these tools. |
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